This will be a bit shorter than usual because it’s 3am, but the FAB finance world never sleeps. To cut to the chase, Rudy of Alpha Investments sent out a Patreon email that has now been widely shared
Remember how like three days ago I was all “if we get another catalyzing event, you’ll probably see a spike in CRU value potentially to $400-500.” So, uh, things are crazy, fam.
I mean, when I wrote that, I was serious, but I certainly didn’t think it would happen the same week.
Is there really no Unlimited Crucible of War?
And here’s the fastest response I’ve ever seen from LSS to a major market event.
Sure looks that way for now. The impression I get from this is that LSS really never wanted to print UNL CRU. Maybe their hands will be forced due to demand if singles get too high in the next few months, but it seems like they wanted to deal with it by printing a couple cards here and there versus redoing the whole set. If there is actually no CRU reprint, expect full art Twinning Blade to explode in value, as its price was always held down by uncertainty on how it would be handled in unlimited.
There is, as I write this a window to get your CRU rainbow foil singles (I grabbed the 14 or so Majestic foils I was missing for $160 a couple hours ago). But that window is going to close. If first edition WRT and ARC RF Supers are selling at $50+ I think you can say goodbye to sub $30 CRU RF M’s in the coming weeks unless wave 2 was significantly bigger than all indication suggest.
But seriously, $500 CRU; how high can it go?
No idea. We are in unprecedented space here, but if CRU doesn’t get an UNL edition, I think a year from now, people are going to be fondly remembering $500 boxes. I will say that my previously noted concern about MON 1st edition print size has only increased with Rudy’s take that it’ll be gone in 30 days. While Rudy is not some infallible source of information here, he has better and more privileged information than pretty much anyone outside of LSS. I don’t see this as a positive. One month falls well within my range of concern of retailers holding product to sell at a markup, and you can absolutely expect many of them to pull all 1st edition boxes in their possession the instant distribution tells them they can’t get any more. You can already see this with popular retailers marking their CRU up to $500.
Frankly, this all makes me a little nervous. If $500 CRU boxes stick for the short term, I’ll probably sell about 20% of my position to put me in the black on total FAB spending, which will let me be worry free on holding everything else. I certainly don’t see a reason to liquidate CRU, the upside on box prices if Unlimited doesn’t happen is huge, but I do like to mitigate risk because, even with my hobby investing, I’m relatively conservative.
If you got a Team Covenant Subscription for MON (which, if you didn’t, I told you to do it a month ago!) congratulations because locking in an order with a company with a direct relationship with LSS, that sold it to you for MAP with an exclusive promo is going to make you an absolute killing. If you didn’t, I would expect MSRP to be the going rate for most retailers and MAP to be fairly hard to come by. If you didn’t stake out a position with TC, you’ll need to be vigilant in your search come March. Also, I’ll write more about this in a future piece, but you should consider keeping the Alpha Investments Patreon open in a browser window and refreshing it periodically to see if a spot opens. People tend to drop near the end of the month, and even if you’re just there for FAB, Rudy’s kits have pretty much always paid for the product on the backs of the promos, and it seems like his FAB involvement will be even more going forward. As always, like him or hate him, you can’t afford to ignore him if you’re involved in cardboard finance.
*Header Image – Screen Capture from an Alpha Investments YouTube video