These constant FAB news spikes on days I already wrote one article are killing me. In what is becoming an irksome trend, LSS stealth announced that Crucible of War is now out of print via an update to the Collector’s Center with no corresponding front page announcement. Much like the “No Unlimited” announcement, this information was essentially found at random by people browsing the site and then propagated by the #wall-street channel on the FAB discord. Before I talk about the implications of this news, I just want to note that I really don’t like that things like this, which we previously found out via front page news releases, are now ostensibly discovered via scavenger hunts.
Does it Matter?
Given that we just had two major market movements in the past week, you might be asking if this announcement will even have any impact on the market. I think it will. I doubt we’re going to see prices quadruple like Welcome to Rathe did at its OOP announcement, the climbing prices already accounted for a rapidly diminishing stock of CRU. What I do think will happen is that this will blunt the retrace of CRU and likely lock us into a $500 box floor over the next few weeks. The winter holidays may draw this out a bit just because January is a notoriously bad month for sales of all kinds as people try to scrimp to offset the costs of gifts and such. However, with the OOP status official, if you want to lock in a position on CRU the time is now (well, actually he time was back in November, but if you weren’t convinced then, hopefully I can convince you now that holding out for a meaningful opportunity for cheaper boxes is a risky proposition.) I wouldn’t be surprised if, by the end of February or beginning of March, we see $600+ boxes of CRU as the new norm, particularly if we get a print size confirmation that puts CRU at twice the size of ARC and WTR or less.
How about Singles?
I think that people are already erring on the side of overshooting cold foil Majestics. Meanwhile, there are some rapidly vanishing opportunities to get CF rares at a decent price. These seem to be trending towards $100 or so in the short term. Rainbow foil Majestics are already drying up, so if you didn’t grab the ones you wanted last week, you’d better get on that soon. Shard and Shiyana seem like they’re on the sort of absurd “who knows” trajectory that Heart and Eye have taken. And while they could definitely and very likely will continue to go up in the short term, I really feel a bit trepidations about the very high end FAB market. It does seem possible that if enough big Magic money moves into FAB that they’ll be able to prop up the high end market among themselves, but I also think prices have gotten very, very high on some of this stuff very quickly and there has to be a ceiling. Maybe it’s a lack of imagination on my part, but I cannot believe Heart, Eye, or Tunic will beat out even Beta Power 9 in the next decade and have little hope of challenging Alpha. At some point, it feels like we’ve got to hit the plateau point, and I think it’s a fair bit shy of the Power 9. Also, frankly, I think I’d rather have 10k in first edition Monarch boxes at $76-95 (plus pre-order promos) than a Heart. The Monarch just feels like it has more potential over the next couple years, and it’s also a lot easier to move. Unless you’re the sort of person for whom 10 grand is a trivial amount of money to toss into cardboard, I would be hesitant to move into the Fable market at this point.
*Header Image – Crucible of War Logo by Legend Story Studios, designer unknown